Faculty of Natural Resources and Spatial Sciences
Integrated Land Management Institute (ILMI)
Land, livelihoods and housing
Programme 2015-18
Working Paper
The Integrated Land Management Institute (ILMI) is a centre of the Faculty of Natural
Resources and Spatial Sciences (FNRSS) at the Namibia University of Science and
Technology (NUST), committed to developing reputable and multidisciplinary
research and public outreach activities in the fields of land administration, property,
architecture, and spatial planning.
The Land, Livelihoods and Housing Programme aims at deepening and expanding the
focus on these three key issues in Namibia. This thematic approach seeks to reflect
the wide-ranging skills exiting at the FNRSS, and was developed to guide ILMIs
activities during the 2014-18 period. The programme is organised in four aspects:
institutional, environmental, fiscal and spatial processes.
May 2018
Integrated Land Management Institute (ILMI)
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Working Paper No. 8
Assessment of
Housing Needs in Namibia
Kristofina Asino
Department of Architecture and Spatial Planning
Namibia University of Science and Technology
Åse Christensen
Department of Land and Property Sciences
Namibia University of Science and Technology
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The current paper derives from work conducted in the context of the Revision of the Mass Housing Development
Programme (MHDP) that the Ministry of Urban and Rural Development (MURD) commissioned to the Integrated
Land Management Institute (ILMI) at the Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST). The paper contains
only publicly-available information and was prepared for public dissemination of issues related to the work
undertaken for the Ministry in the context of this project. More information about this project can be found on
http://newmasshousing.nust.na/
The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance and support provided by the research assistants who played an
important role in gathering the data and information, which constitutes the foundation for the analysis. The
research assistants are: Rymoth Mbeha, Memory Mudabeti, Charisma Shipena, and Herman Elvido.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Kristofina Asino is a lecturer at the Department of Architecture and Spatial Sciences at NUST. She has national and
international professional experience in the field of urban and regional planning. She previously worked as a Town
Planner for both the Queenslands Department of Transport and Main Roads in Australia and Municipality of
Walvis Bay in Namibia. She holds a BSc in Community and Regional Planning from Iowa State University, a Master
in Urban and Regional Planning from the University of the Free State, and is currently a PhD candidate at the
University of Pretoria. She is also an active member of the Namibia Institute of Town and Regional Planners. Her
areas of expertise within the field of urban and regional planning are broad and include housing. She can be
reached at kasino@nust.na
Åse Christensen is a lecturer at the Department of Land and Property Sciences. She holds an MSc in Surveying,
Planning and Land Management from Aalborg University in Denmark. She has worked in the field of tenure
security, slum upgrading, socio-economic analyses, and has worked in the development of the Flexible Land
Tenure System (FLTS) in Namibia. She has coordinated projects in collaboration with various international
organisations, such as the World Bank (WB), Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), Swedish International
Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), Norwegian Government (StatensKartverk - Norad). She has ample
experience working internationally in development projects as well as a consultant for local and international
organisations. She can be reached at achristensen@nust.na
____
© 2018 ILMI Integrated Land Management Institute
ISBN 978-99916-55-69-7
ILMI is a research centre at the Faculty of Natural Resources and Spatial Sciences (FNRSS) at the
Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST).
Views expressed by the authors are not to be attributed to any of these institutions.
Please visit our website for details on ILMIs publications policy: http://ilmi.nust.na
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 1
DEFINITIONS
TheDefinitionsstatedbelowareaspertheNamibianStatisticsAgency2001PopulationandHousing
CensusReport(CentralBureauofStatistics,NationalPlanningCommission,2003,p.85)ifnot
otherwisereferenced.
TERM DEFINITION
Commercialor
IndustrialFlats:
Livingpremises,whicharealsousedforcommercialorindustrialpurposes.Thatisahousing
unitthatisalsopartlyusedasabottlestoreorasupermarket,oraworkshop,iscategorisedasa
commercialorindustrialflats.
DetachedHouse: Ahouseonitsownandnotattachedtoanotherhouse.
EconomicallyActive
Population:
Theeconomicallyactivepopulationiscomposedofemployedandunemployedpersonsinthe
workingage(15yearsandabove),alsoreferredtoasthelabourforce(NamibiaStatisticsAgency,
2012b,p.13).
Flat: Aself-containedlivingpremiseinabuildingwithoneormorefloors,andwithcommon
entrances.Flatisusedinterchangeablywithapartment.
GeneralValuation
Roll:
Alegaldocumentthatconsistsofpropertyinformationofallrateablepropertieswithinthe
boundariesofamunicipality(CityofJohannesburg,2007,p.1).InNamibiaitisproduced
accordingtolegislationatleastevery5years(GovernmentoftheRepublicofNamibia,1992,
para.66(2))containsi.e.nameofowner,size,extentandtotalvalueoftheproperty.Valueof
landandvalueofimprovementsareshownseparately(GovernmentoftheRepublicofNamibia,
1992,para.67(1)(d)).
GuestFlat: Aself-containedlivingpremiseinthesamecompoundasadetachedhouse.
Household: Apersonorgroupofpersons,relatedorunrelated,livingtogetherinthesamehouse/dwelling.
Theyhavethesamecateringarrangementsandareanswerabletothesamehouseholdhead
(CentralBureauofStatistics,NationalPlanningCommission,2003,p.81).
Housing: Anyshelter,lodgingordwellinghouseordwellingunit,residentialland,etc.
HousingBacklog: Ahousingbacklogistheunderprovisioninhousingthathasaccumulatedagainstpreviously
plannedtargets(CornwallCouncil,2013,p.1)orunfulfilleddemand.
ImprovisedHousing: Housingunitsbuiltofdiscardedmaterials(suchascardboards,plasticsheeting,flattenedempty
tins,etc.),corrugatedironroofingsheets,derelictvehiclespartsandcarts,clayormud,cow
dung,etc.;butthatarenottraditionalhousing.
MobileHomes: Livingpremisesthatbemovedortransferredortransported,suchastents,caravans,etc.
Semi-DetachedHouse: Ahousethatisattachedtoanotherbutwithitsownfacilitiesandaseparateentrance.
SingleQuarters: Aroomorasetofroomswithsharedtoiletandkitchenfacilities,andcommonlyleasedbythe
occupantsorresidents.
SuitableHousing:
Housingthatisfitforhumanhabitation(suchasdetachedhouse,semi-detachedhouse,flats,
guestflats,commercialorindustrialflats,traditionaldwelling,etc.Suitablehousingexcludes
singlequarters,improvisedhousing(suchasshacks)andanyothertypesofhousingnotsuitable
forhumanhabitation.
TraditionalDwelling: Housingthatcomprisesofahutoragroupofhutswalledorun-walledwithsticks,poleswithor
withoutthatchorgrass.
UnsuitableHousing: Housingthatisnotfitforhumanhabitationsuchasshacks.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 2
1. Introduction
Theneedforurbanhousingdependshighlyonthenumberofpeoplelivingintownsandcities.Globallythe
numberofpeopleisincreasingrapidlyanditisestimatedthatby2030thepopulationwillbearound9
billionrisingto11billionby2050(Rizvi,2016).Atthesametimeurbanisationratesarehighanditis
expectedthattwo-thirdsoftheglobalpopulationwillbelivinginurbanareasin2030andofwhicharound
50%willbelivinginpoverty,insubstandardhousingorinslums(Rizvi,2016)duetoashortageinthe
provisionofaffordableservicedland.ThisglobaltrendisalsonoticeableinmanyAfricancountrieswhich
arefacingmassiveurbanisationandthusputtingevenmorepressureonthehousingdemandwhichcomes
inadditiontothealreadyexistinghighbacklogonaffordablehousing.Thisisalsothescenarioinseveral
urbanareasinNamibia.
AccordingtotheNamibiaNationalHousingPolicy(NHP),housingisoneoftheNamibiangovernments
developmentpriorities(MinistryofRegionalandLocalGovernment,HousingandRuralDevelopment,
2009,p.4).TheNHPfurtheroutlinesthatitistheroleofthegovernmenttoensureaninclusive
developmentprocessandtomakeprovisionforpeopleexcludedfromtheformalhousingmarkettoaccess
land,housingandservices.TheNHPacknowledgesthatempowermentoflocalruralandurban
communitiesaswellasindividualsdependsonpropertyrightsandpeoplesaccesstocreditbymakinguse
oftheirpropertiesassets.TheNHPfurthersuggestsanintegratedapproachtohousing,includingbothrural
andurbandevelopment,whileaimingatcreatingsustainablehumansettlements(MinistryofRegional
andLocalGovernment,HousingandRuralDevelopment,1991,p.4).Thevisionisthat[b]y2017,Namibia
willhavearobustandeffectivehousingdeliveryprogrammewhereaffordabilityisthekeyfeatureofthe
programme;andthat60%ofhouseholdswillbelivinginmodernhouses(OfficeofthePresident,National
PlanningCommission,2012,p.xvi).Despitenationalintentionstoenhancehousinginfrastructure,the
numberofpeoplelivinginsubstandardhousingininformalsettlementsisonanincrease,duetovarious
challenges.
ThemainchallengesintheNamibianhousingsectorareexorbitantpricespartlyduetomismatches
betweenthedemandforandthesupplyofhousing.AccordingtotheNationalPlanningCommission(NPC),
therehasalsobeenalackofgovernmentalfundingforhousingprogrammesforthelow-incomeand
middle-incomegroups.AstudycarriedoutbytheBankofNamibia(BoN)in2011concludedthataround
70%ofNamibiansareexcludedfromcreditaccessandthuscannotaccessurbanfreeholdlanddueto,
amongstothers,limiteddisposableincome,povertyandexclusionfromconventionalhomeloanfacilities
(BankofNamibia,2011,p.19).
Country-wide,thereareissueswiththeprovisionofsufficientland,andparticularlyinurbanareasthereis
ashortageofaffordableland.Theurbanpopulationhasincreasedfrom28%in1991to42%in2011
(NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a,p.38)andiscurrentlyestimatedtobearound50%.Accordingtoastudy
bytheBankofNamibiathecountryhadahousingbacklogof300,000unitsin2011withanincreasefrom
80,000unitsin2007(BankofNamibia,2011,p.12).Theincreaseinthehousingbacklogisamplifiedbythe
factthatthereisadecreaseintheaveragehouseholdsizenationwide,from5.1in2001to4.4in2011
(NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a,pp.39&44).Thedecreaseinhouseholdsizecombinedwiththeincrease
inpopulationputsmorepressureonthedemandforhousing.Notwithstandingthedecreaseinaverage
householdsize,themainshortageofhousingisamongsthouseholdsearninglessthanNAD5,000per
month(Chiripanhura&Jauch,2015,p.9).
Thehousingrelatedissuesoutlinedabovecallforananalysisofthecurrentandfuturehousingneedsin
Namibiainordertoestimatethefutureneedforhousing.However,currentlythereisnomethodological
approachthatisbeingusedbylocalorregionalornationalgovernmentsinNamibiatoestimatethe
numberofhouseholdsrequiredoveracertainperiod.Somelocalauthoritiesbasedthehousingneedson
theapplicationstheyreceiveforresidentialland.However,thisisnotgoodenoughsincethenumberof
currentapplicantsdoesnotincludetheprojectedhouseholdswhohavenotyetappliedforresidentialland
(orhousing).
Hence,thisreportanalysesthehousingassessmentmethodologicalapproachesusedbyotherauthorities
outsideNamibiaandappliesoneofthoseapproachestoassessthehousingneedsinNamibia.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 3
2 HousingNeedsAssessment
2.1 HousingNeedsDefinition
Therearevariousdefinitionsofhousingneeds.AccordingtoHeath(2014),housingneedscanbe
definedasanormativenotion,whichfocusesongroupsofpeoplewithnoaccesstohousingof
acceptablestandards.Heathdefinedhousingneedsasthenumberofhouseholdsthatdonothave
accesstoaccommodationthatmeetscertainnormativestandards.
2.2 HousingNeedsCategories
Despitethedifferentdefinitionsthatexist,housingneedscanbecategorisedintotwogroups,being
need-as-aspirationandneed-as-demand(PeterBrettAssociates,2015).Housingneed-as-aspiration
dependsonindividualpreferences,anditisthusanindividualsbehaviouralresponsetohisorher
housingsituation(Steele,2010andOpoko,Ibem&Adeyemi,2015).Thisisattainedbyrelocatingor
alteringexistinghousingenvironment.Thehousingneed-as-aspirationcreatesamuchlargernumber
ofhousingneedscomparedtothehousingneed-as-demand.However,housingneed-as-aspirationhas
somepracticalimplicationsforplantargetsandlandallocations.
Ontheotherhand,housingneed-as-demandreferstothescaleandmixofhousingandtherangeof
tenuresthatislikelytobeneededinthehousingmarketareaovertheplanperiod[which]caterfor
thehousingdemand[&]andidentifythescaleofhousingsupply(PeterBrettAssociates,2015,p.41).
Hence,inthecontextofthisreport,thehousingneedassessmentfocusesonthehousingneed-as-
demand.
2.3 HousingNeedsAssessmentMethodologicalApproaches
Therearevariousmethodologicalapproachesforassessinghousingneedsinacountry,regionorlocal
area.Determinationofthehousingneedsisthereforenotaprecisescience,asthereisnospecific
approachthatcandeliveradefinitiveanswer.
Despitenumerousmethodologicalapproaches,thissectionreviewstwoapproachesthatcan
potentiallybeusedtoestablishhousingneedsinNamibia.TheseareLeungsNeed-GapAnalysisand
theUnitedKingdomsDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernmentsStrategicHousingMarket
Assessment(SHMA).
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 4
2.3.1 LeungsNeed-GapAnalysis
ThehousingneedsassessmentcanbeundertakeninaccordancewithusingtheNeedGapAnalysis
approach.AccordingtoLeung(2003),aNeed-GapAnalysisisanexercisethatdetermineshowmuch
landisrequiredtoaccommodatehousingneedsinacityortown.Suchanalysisistobecarriedoutby
followingthestepsoutlinedinFigure1below:
Figure1:Need-GapAnalysis
Source:Leung,2003.
1. ESTABLISH HOUSING NEED FOR SOME FUTURE PERIOD
(a) Estimate future population & its demographic profile.
(b) Translate population into number of households by household size & type.
(c) Translate the number of households into number of dwelling units by dwelling
size and housing type.
2. EXAMINE THE EXISTING HOUSING STOCK IN TERMS OF HOUSING TYPE &
NUMBER
That is, determine the number of existing dwelling units, by size and type.
3. COMPARE THE FINDINGS OF HOUSING NEEDS AND HOUSING STOCK TO
ESTIMATE THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF NEW DWELLINGS NEEDED
Calculate the Basic Need-Gap: 1(c) 2
4. CALCULATE THE REASONABLE NEED-GAP
(a) Basic Need plus obsolescence, demolition, abandonment, renewal, invasions by
other uses, loss due to fire and other catastrophes, and allowance for vacancies.
(b) Calculate the Need for new housing construction: Need-Gap minus housing units
created by conversion and rehabilitation.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 5
2.3.2 UnitedKingdomsDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernments
StrategicHousingMarketAssessment
TheUnitedKingdomsDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernmentsStrategicHousingMarket
Assessment(SHMA)isconductedbyfollowingthefourstagesoutlinedbyFigure2(Departmentfor
CommunitiesandLocalGovernment,2007).
Figure2:HousingNeedsAssessmentMethodologicalApproach
Source:DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment,2007.
STAGE 1:
DETERMINE THE CURRENT
HOUSING NEED:
" Determine the number of
households currently in
need of housing.
" Determine the number of
households lacking suitable
housing and cannot afford
such housing in the market
sector.
STAGE 2:
DETERMINE CURRENT
AND FUTURE HOUSING
SUPPLY
STAGE 3:
DETERMINE THE FUTURE
HOUSING NEED OVER A
PLAN PERIOD:
" Determine current and
future need, and subtract it
from current and future
housing supply.
STAGE 4:
DETERMINE ANNUAL
HOUSING NEED PER
PERIOD:
" Converting total housing
need to annual flow.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 6
3 MethodologicalApproachforHousingNeedsAssessmentin
Namibia
Thereisnospecificmethodologicalapproachthatisbeingusedbygovernmentsatlocal,regionalor
nationallevelsinNamibiatodeterminehousingneeds.Inviewofthis,thisstudyutilisestheU.K.s
DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernmentshousingneedsassessmentsequentialapproach
asoutlinedinSection2ofthisreport,bydetermining:currenthousingneedsinNamibia;currentand
futurehousingsupplyinNamibia;futurehousingneedovertheplanperiodinNamibia;andannual
housingneedsperperiodinNamibia.LeungsNeed-GapAnalysiscouldnotbeusedinassessingthe
housingneedsinNamibia,duetolimiteddatathatisrequiredtofactorintotheanalysis.
3.1 Stage1:DeterminetheCurrentHousingNeeds
Thisstageinvolvesdeterminingtheexistingnumberofthehouseholdswhoarecurrentlyinneedof
housing.Thesearethehouseholdswhoeitherresideinunsuitablehousingand/orwhocannotafford
housingintheformalmarketsector.Inthecontextofthisreport,unsuitablehousingisdefinedbythe
followingcriteria:
"ImprovisedHousing(includesshacks);
"MobileHousingsuchascaravanortent;
"SingleQuarterHousing,and
"Othertypesofhousingnotmentionedabove(excludingdetachedandsemi-detachedhousing,
townhouses,flats,flatsinacommercialorindustrialarea).
3.2 Stage2:DeterminetheCurrentandFutureHousingSupply
(a) CurrentHousingSupply
Thisstageestablishesthecurrentandfuturesupplyofhousing.Thecurrenthousingsupplyis
determinedfromthecurrentresidentialvacanterven(asperthelatestGeneralEvaluationRollsfrom
localauthorities).Inparticular,thenumberofvacanterventhatarezonedasSingleResidentialor
ResidentialorGeneralResidentialorResidential2andabovehavebeencompiledtodetermine
thecurrentavailablevacantresidentialerven.
ItisimportanttotakeintoaccountthedensityzoningofGeneralResidentialorResidential2and
abovezonederven,becausethesetypesofervencaterforhigh-densityresidentialdevelopmentsand
thuscanaccommodatemorethanonedwellingunit.However,thedensityzoningsforthehigh
residentialdensityervencouldnotbeobtainedfromlocalauthorities.Intheabsenceofthedensity
zoningsoftheaforementionederven,intermsofthisstudy,suchervenwereevaluatedasstandard
erventhatcanonlyaccommodateonedwelling.
(b) FutureHousingSupply
Thefuturehousingsupplywasderivedfromthetotalnumberofavailableresidentialland(serviced
andun-serviced).Thetotalnumberofavailableresidentiallandparcelswasobtainedfromsomelocal
authoritiesandfromtheMinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopmentsMassiveUrbanLandServicing
ProjectReport(DraftImplementationPlan)dated2016.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 7
Ofthoseservicedorun-servicedresidentiallandparcelsthatmakeupthefuturehousingsupply,
someofthelandparcelshave:
"onlybeenapprovedbyCouncil,butnotapprovedbytheMinisterofUrbanandRural
Development(throughtheNamibiaPlanningAdvisoryBoardand/ortheTownshipsBoard);
"beenapprovedbythetwoaforesaidboards,butnotyetbeensurveyed;
"beensurveyedbutnotyetregisteredbytheRegistrarofDeeds;and
"gonethroughalltheplanningprocesses,wherebyapprovalhavebeengrantedbyCouncilsand
thetwoboards,thesurveyinghasbeenconcludedanddiagramsorgeneralplanshavebeen
approvedbytheSurveyorGeneralandthepropertieshavebeenregisteredintheDeedsOffice.
(c) OverallHousingSupply
Thecurrentandfuturehousingsupply,asdeterminedinsections(a)and(b)above,werethereafter
addedtogethertogettheoverallhousingsupplyperregion.Althoughtheoverallhousingsupplyisfor
allregions,notalllocalauthoritiesorvillagecouncilshaveavailabledataontheircurrentandfuture
housingsupply.Furthermore,theruralareasthatarenotyetproclaimedasvillagecouncilsor
settlementsareexcludedfromthecalculationsduetotheunavailabilityofdata.
3.3 Stage3:DeterminetheFutureHousingNeedsOverthePlanPeriod
Thedeterminationofthefuturehousingneedsovertheplanperiodinvolvesprojectingthetotal
numberofneededhousingovertheplanperiod.Inprojectingthefuturehousingneeds,threeperiods
areused,namely:
" ShortTerm: 20172020;
" MediumTerm: 20212030;and
" LongTerm: 20312041.
Theyear2011isusedasabaseyear,becausethehouseholddatausedisbasedonthe2011Census
Data.ThecurrenthousingneedsidentifiedinStage1isaddedtothefuturehousingneedsforthe
2017-2020periodtodeterminetheactualhousingneedsforthe2017-2020period.
3.4 Stage4:DeterminetheAnnualHousingNeedsperPeriod
Thetotalhousingneedsfortheplanperiodisconvertedintoanannualflowperperiod.
4. ResultsofHousingNeedsAssessmentinNamibia
TheresultsoftheassessmentofhousingneedsinNamibiaareoutlinedbytheproceedingsections.
ThiswasundertakenusingthesecondarydataderivedfromtheNamibiaStatisticsAgencyscensus
data,theGeneralValuationRollsofvariouslocalauthoritiesinNamibia,aswellasfromtheMinistryof
UrbanandRuralDevelopmentsMassiveUrbanLandServicingProjectReportdated2016,
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 8
4.1 CurrentHousingNeedsinNamibia
Inordertoestablishthecurrenthousingneedsitisfirstvitaltodeterminetheexistingandprojected
numberofhouseholds,andhouseholdtypesinNamibia.Ahouseholdisdefinedasagroupofrelated
orunrelatedpeoplewholiveinthesamedwellingunitandsharecateringarrangements(Namibia
StatisticsAgency,2012a).
4.1.1 ExistingandProjectedNumberofHouseholdsinNamibia
ThenumberofhouseholdsperregioninNamibiain2001and2011werederivedfromthe2011
Census.Ontheotherhand,thenumberofprojectedhouseholdsfrom2016-2041iscalculatedusing
thegeometricgrowthprojectionmethodusingtheyear2011asthebaseyear.Ageometricchange
methodisappropriatewhenitisexpectedthatapopulationwillchangebythesamepercentagerate
overagivenincrementoftimeinthefutureasduringthebaseperiod(George,Smith,Swanson,&
Tayman,2004,p.566).Geometricprojectionscanbecalculatedusingthefollowingformula:
Pn=Po(1+r)
Where:
Poisthetotalnumberofhouseholdsin2011.
tistheperiodoftime,inyears(being9,19&30yearsfor2020,2030&2041respectively).
ristheannualrateofincrease.
Pnisthetotalnumberofhouseholdsattheendofeachperiod(2020,2030or2041).
Table1showsthattheKhomasRegionhasthehighestnumberofhouseholds,withabout121,700
householdsin2017.ThesecondandthirdregionswiththehighestnumberofhouseholdsareErongo
andOmusatiRegionswithover50,000householdsin2017.
Table1:NumberofTotalHouseholdsperRegion
Region 2001* 2011* 2016** 2017**
Omaheke 12,590 16,174 9,551 19141
Hardap 15,039 19,307 22,207 22837
Zambezi 16,839 21,283 24,244 24883
Kavango East 15,406 18,011 19,586 19917
Kavango West 15,061 18,730 21,125 21640
ÁKaras 15,481 20,988 24,996 25885
Ohangwena 35,958 43,723 48,652 49703
Oshana 29,557 37,284 42,419 43528
Omusati 38,202 46,698 52,127 53286
Kunene 12,489 18,495 23,391 24516
Otjozondjupa 25,338 33,192 38,665 39864
Oshikoto 28,419 37,400 43,695 45076
Erongo 27,496 44,116 59,161 62737
Khomas 58,580 89,438 115,610 121700
TOTAL 346455 464839 545430 574714
*Source:NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a.
**Source:GeometricGrowthProjectionCalculation.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 9
Thenumberofhouseholdsisexpectedtoincreaseinallregionsacrossthecountry.Asshownby
Figure3,itisprojectedthatbytheyear2020,thenumberofhouseholdsinKhomasandErongo
Regionswillincreasethemostcomparedtootherregions.In2030,KhomasRegionisexpectedtohave
thelargestnumberofhouseholdsinNamibiafollowedbyErongoRegion.
Figure3:ProjectedNumberofHouseholdsRegionallyandNationally
GeometricGrowthProjectionFormula:Pn=Po(1+r)
Thehouseholdprojectionsfor2020,2030and2041varywidelyacrossthecountry.Thevariancein
projectionscanbeattributedtomigrationandotherfactors.By2041theKhomas,Erongoand
OshikotoRegionswillhavethehighestnumberofhouseholds,whiletheZambezi,Omahekeand
HardapRegionsareprojectedtohavetheleastnumberofhouseholds.
4.1.2 HouseholdTypesinNamibia
ThissectionfocusesonthecurrenthouseholdtypesinNamibia,asstatedintheDefinitionssection
ofthisreport.TheNamibiaStatisticsAgency(2012a;2012b),identifiedthefollowingtypesofhousing
inNamibia:
" Detachedhouse;
" Semi-detached/townhouse;
" Apartment/flat,guestflat;
" Flatincommercial/industrial;
" Mobilehome(caravan,tent);
" Singlequarters;
" Traditionaldwelling;and
" Improvisedhousingunit(shack).
AccordingtotheNamibiaStatisticsAgency(2012a),andasshownbyFigure4,detachedandsemi-
detachedhousing,andtraditionalhousingmakeup38%ofallhouseholdsinNamibia.
Omahek
e Hardap Zambezi
Kavango
East
Kavango
West //Kharas
Ohangw
ena Oshana Omusati Kunene
Otjozon
djupa
Oshikot
o Erongo Khomas
Total/Na
mibia
2017 19141 22837 24883 19917 21640 25885 49703 43528 53286 24516 39864 45076 62737 121700 574714
2020 20822 24837 26906 20945 23260 28747 52993 47032 56921 28226 43687 49486 74815 141964 640640
2030 27570 32857 34912 24768 29590 40776 65615 60879 70925 45147 59282 67547 134546 237207 931622
2041 37543 44701 46496 29785 38559 59895 82998 80864 90340 75686 82938 95113 256592 417227 1438736
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
Pr
oj
ec
te
d
N
um
be
r
of
H
ou
se
ho
ld
s
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 10
Figure4:HouseholdTypesinNamibia
Source:NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a.
Traditionalhousingismostcommoninruralareas.Traditionaldwellingsaremostlyusedinthe
northernregions,suchasOmusati,OhangwenaandKavangoRegions.Thenumberoftraditional
housingisalsohigherbecauseitisdeemedmoreaffordablewhenitcomestobuildingcosts.People
mostlyusematerialsavailableintheirvicinity,suchasclaysoilforthewalls,sticksforfoundation,hay
orgrassfortheroof,dependingontheareainwhichtheylive.Itshouldalsobepointedoutthat,
nowadayssomeinhabitantsinruralareasarebuildinghousesusingdurablematerialssuchascement
bricks(forthewalls),cementconcretefloors,ironsheets/tilesroofslikeinurbanareas.
Detachedandsemi-detachedhousingmakesupthesecondmostcommontypeofhousing,makingup
44%ofthehouseholdsinNamibia.Detachedandsemi-detachedhousingarethemostpopularkindof
housinginurbanareas.
Improvisedhousinghasthethirdlargestshare,being18%oftheexistinghouseholds.Improvised
housingisfoundinallurbanareas.Thistypeofhousingemergedduetovariouscircumstances.Oneof
thereasonsistheslowpaceoflanddeliveryinNamibia,andsubsequentlyunavailabilityofserviced
residentialland.Anotherreasonisunaffordabilityofhousingintheformalmarketsector,whichlead
peopletoerectshacksonmainlymunicipalland.
Inthecontextofthisassessment,thehouseholdtypesidentifiedbytheNamibianStaticsAgencyare
consolidatedintotwocategories,being:
"SuitableHousingcomprisingofdetachedhousing,semi-detachedhousing,townhouses,
traditionalhousingandflats(includingflatsincommercialorindustrialareasandguestflats)
housingtypes;and
"UnsuitableHousing-comprisingofvarioushousingtypessuchasimprovisedhousing(e.g.
shacks),singlequartersandmobilehousing(caravanortentedhousing),andanyothertypesof
housingnotlistedunderSuitableHousing.
SuitableandUnsuitableHousingTypesareshownbyFigure5.
Detached and
Semi-Detached
38%
Flats
6%
Traditional
Housing
38%
Improvised
Housing
18%
Others
0%
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 11
Figure5:HousingCategoriesandTypes
ThehousingthatiscategorisedasUnsuitableHousingincludeshousingsuchasshacks.Table2
showsthepercentageofunsuitablehousingonaregionallevelfrom2001to2016inNamibia,based
onthe2001and2011censusdata.The2016datawasderivedfromgeometricprojectioncalculations.
Suitable Housing
Detached Housing
Semi-Detached Housing
Townhouses
Traditional Housing traditional houses or
homesteads
Flats (including flats in commercial or
industrial areas and guest flats)
Unsuitable Housing
(Current Need)
Improvised Housing (shacks)
Mobile homes (caravan or tented housing)
Single quarters & shacks
Others Any other types of housing not
listed
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 12
Table2:UnsuitableHouseholdsperRegioninNamibiafrom2001-2016
PERCENTAGE OF UNSUITABLE
HOUSEHOLDS
NUMBER OF
UNSUITABLE HOUSEHOLDS
REGION 2001* 2011* 2016** 2016
Erongo 27.0% 35.3% 41.1% 24,297
Hardap 20.2% 26.3% 30.5% 6,777
ÁKaras 21.9% 30.2% 36.4% 9,092
Kavango East 23.3% 32.1% 38.6% 7,568
Kavango West 18.6% 15.2% 13.9% 2,928
Khomas 29.4% 32.9% 34.9% 40,354
Kunene 9.8% 12.7% 14.7% 3,602
Ohangwena 4.2% 6.6% 8.7% 4,240
Omaheke 19.0% 21.5% 23.0% 2,192
Omusati 3.4% 2.7% 2.4% 1,268
Oshana 7.8% 10.4% 12.3% 5,198
Oshikoto 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 2,884
Otjozondjupa 19.0% 22.6% 24.8% 9,598
Zambezi 4.0% 15.2% 52.2% 12,662
TOTAL 134,676
*Source:DatafromNamibiaStatisticsAgency,2001and2011.
**Source:GeometricProjectionCalculationusing2001and2011censusdata.
InaccordancewithTable2,theZambezi,Erongo,KavangoEast,ÁKarasKhomasandHardapRegions
aretheregionswiththehighestpercentageofunsuitablehouseholds(makingupover30%ofthetotal
households),asof2016.Omusati,OshikotoandOhangwenaRegionshavethelowestpercentageof
unsuitablehouseholds,beinglessthan10%ofthetotalhouseholds.Thenumberofunsuitablehousing
for2016revealsthehousingneedsfor2016.
4.1.3 PreliminaryHousingNeedsinNamibiafor2017-2020Period
Thehousingneedsforthecurrentperiod(beingfrom2017to2020)inNamibiawasdeterminedby
addingthenumberofhouseholdsneeded(orunsuitablehouseholdsdepictedbyTable2)fortheyear
2016totheprojectednumberofhouseholdsneededforthe2017-2020period.Table3andFigure6
showthehousingneedsforthecurrentperiod.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 13
Table3:PreliminaryHousingNeedsinNamibiafor2017-2020Period
REGION 2016 HOUSING NEEDS
2017-2020
PROJECTED
HOUSEHOLDS
2017-2020
HOUSING
NEEDS
Erongo 24,297 15,654 39,951
Hardap 6,777 2,630 9,407
ÁKaras 9,092 3,751 12,843
Kavango East 7,568 1,359 8,926
Kavango West 2,928 2,135 5,063
Khomas 40,354 26,353 66,708
Kunene 3,602 4,835 8,437
Ohangwena 4,240 4,341 8,580
Omaheke 2,192 11,272 13,464
Omusati 1,268 4,794 6,063
Oshana 5,198 4,613 9,810
Oshikoto 2,884 5,791 8,675
Otjozondjupa 9,598 5,022 14,620
Zambezi 12,662 2,662 15,324
TOTAL 134,676 95,211 227,871
Figure6:PreliminaryHousingNeedsinNamibiafor2017-2020Period
AsindicatedinFigure6,Khomas,ErongoandZambeziRegionsarethetopthreeregionswiththe
highestnumberofhousingneeds.Ontheotherhand,KavangoWest,OmusatiandKuneneRegionsare
theregionswithlesshousingneedsduringthisshort-termperiod(2017-2020).
50
63
60
63 8
43
7
85
80
86
75
89
26
94
07
98
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43
13
46
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14
62
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20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
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ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 14
4.2 CurrentandFutureLandResidentialLandSupplyinNamibia
4.2.1 Available(Current)ResidentialLandSupplyinNamibia
ThecurrentresidentiallandsupplywasdeterminedusingtheGeneralValuationRolldatafrom
variouslocalauthorities.Inparticular,thenumberofvacantSingleResidential(orResidential)and
GeneralResidential(orResidential2or3)wascompiledfromthelocalauthoritiesGeneralValuation
Roll,todeterminethecurrentsupplyofresidentialland.
Figure7belowshowstheavailablehousingsupplyineightofthefourteenregionsinNamibia.
Figure7:Available(Current)HousingSupplyinEightRegionsinNamibia
Source:GeneralValuationRollsofVariousLocalAuthoritiesinNamibia.
TheresearcherscouldnotobtaintheGeneralValuationRollfromsomelocalauthorities.Hence,the
dataanalysedisonlybasedontheinformationobtainedfromErongoRegion(fromHentiesBayand
Usakostowns),Hardap(Gochas),Omusati(Tsanditown),OshikotoRegion(OmuthiyaandTsumeb
towns),OshanaRegion(Ondangwa,OngwedivaandOshakatitowns),//KarasRegion(Keetmanshoop
town),Otjozondjupa(Grootfonteintown),andZambeziRegion(KatimaMulilotown).
AsperFigure7,theOshikotoRegionistheregionwiththehighestnumberofvacantresidentialerven.
ThisisalsoevidentinFigure8,whichdisplaysthespatialdistributionofavailableresidentialland(or
housing).
60 90 69
1 11
73
13
79
21
37
21
97
22
62
98
99
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
O
m
us
at
i
Ha
rd
ap
O
tjo
zo
nd
ju
pa
//
Kh
ar
as
Er
on
go
O
sh
an
a
Za
m
be
zi
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TO
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N
o.
o
f A
va
ila
bl
e
Va
ca
nt
E
rv
en
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 15
Figure8:SpatialDistributionofAvailableHousingSupplyinNamibia
Thetotalavailablevacantresidentiallandparcelsasobtainedfromtheeightregionsis9,899.This
amountwillcontributelesstowardsthealleviationofthehousingbacklogof300,000asstipulatedby
theBankofNamibia(2011).
4.2.2 FutureResidentialLandSupplyinNamibia
Thefutureresidentiallandsupplyisdeterminedusingthedataonun-servicedresidentialerventhat
theresearchers,asmentioned,obtainedfromsomelocalauthoritiesinNamibiain2017.Additionally,
thefuturelandsupplywasalsoderivedfromthedatacontainedintheMinistryofUrbanandRural
DevelopmentsMassUrbanLandServicingProject(MULSP):DraftImplementationPlan.
SomeofthefutureresidentialplotshavenotyetbeenapprovedbyNamibiaPlanningAdvisoryBoard
(NAMPAB)orTownshipsBoard;somehavebeenapprovedbutnotyetsurveyed;andsomehavebeen
approvedbythesaidboardsandsurveyed.Nevertheless,theinformationiscrucialindeterminingthe
potentialnumberoferventhatcanbeavailedforhousingdevelopmentsinvariousregionsinNamibia.
Figure9showsthetotalnumberoffuturelandsupply(i.e.futureresidentialerven)perregion.
NUMBER OF RESERVE ERVEN IN NAMIBIA
Future Reserve Erven
Legend
Future Reserve Erven
0 - 1247
1248 - 3991
3992 - 12192
12193 - 19173
Current Vacant Erven
Total Reserve Land Supply
Legend
Current Vacant Erven
0 - 60
61 - 691
692 - 1379
1380 - 2197
2198 - 2262
Legend
Total Re e ve La d Supply
0 - 1247
1248 - 3631
3632 - 7473
7474 - 12192
12193 - 20552
®
0 200 400100 Km
1:9 000 000
Reserve Erven In Graph
Legend
Namibia
10 000
Future Reserve Erven
Current Vacant Erven
Total Reserve Land Supply
Kavango
East
Zambezi
Khomas
Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Oshikoto
Ohangwena
O
sh
an
a
Kunene
Erongo
Omusati
Karas
Hardap
Kavango West
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 16
Figure9:FutureHousing(ResidentialLand)SupplyinNamibia
Source:MinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment,2016.
TheErongoRegionhasthehighestnumberoffutureresidentialplots,withatotalof19,173residential
plots.TheKhomasRegionisthesecondhighest,with12,192futureresidentialplots.TheKavangoEast
andWest,andHardapRegionshavetheleastnumberofpotentialresidentialerven.Nodatawas
obtainedfromtheKuneneRegion.
0 94
9
12
47 2
20
6
22
48 23
55
24
08
24
58 39
91
60
52
74
13 8
18
1 1
21
92
19
17
3
68
66
7
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Ku
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ne
Ka
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ng
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Ka
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W
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ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 17
4.2.3 OverallResidentialLandSupplyinNamibia
ThetotallandsupplyacrossthenationisillustratedbyTable4.
REGION
CURRENT
AVAILABLE
RESIDENTIAL
ERVEN*
FUTURE
RESIDENTIAL
ERVEN**
TOTAL
RESIDENTIAL
LAND
SUPPLY***
Kunene 0 0 0
Kavango East 949 0 949
Kavango West 1247 0 1247
Ohangwena 2248 0 2248
Hardap 2206 90 2296
Omaheke 2355 0 2355
ÁKaras 2458 1173 3631
Zambezi 2408 2197 4605
Oshikoto 3991 2262 6253
Otjozondjupa 6052 691 6743
Omusati 7413 60 7473
Oshana 8181 2137 10318
Khomas 12192 0 12192
Erongo 19173 1379 20552
TOTAL 70873 9989 80862
Table4:TotalResidentialLand(Housing)SupplyinNamibia
*Source:GeneralValuationRollfromLocalAuthorities.
**Source:MinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment,2016andVariousLocalAuthoritiesinNamibia.
***TotalResidentialLandSupply=CurrentAvailableResidentialErven+FutureResidentialErven.
TheErongoRegionistheregionwiththehighestnumberofthetotalnumberofresidentialland
(combinedcurrentandfutureresidentialerven).WindhoekandOshanaRegionsarethesecondand
thirdhighestrespectively.TheKavangoEastandWest,andOhangwenaRegionsaretheregionswith
lessnumberofcombinedcurrentandfutureresidentialerven.TheKuneneRegionwasnotassessedas
nodatawasavailableandtheproposednumberofresidentialervenwasobtainedfromthisregion.
ThespatialdistributionofavailableresidentialervenisindicatedbyFigure10.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 18
Figure10:SpatialDistributionofOverallResidentialLandSupplyinNamibia
4.3 DeterminingtheTotalFutureHousingNeedsinNamibia
4.3.1 Short-TermPeriodHousingNeeds:2017-2020
Thefuturehousingneedsfortheshort-term(2017-2020)periodwasdeterminedbyapplyingthe
followingformula:
2017-2020
Final
Housing Needs
=
2017-2020
Preliminary
Housing Needs
-
Total Housing
(Residential Land)
Supply
Table5showstheresultsofthecalculationaspertheaforesaidformula.
TOTAL RESERVE LAND SUPPLY IN 2017
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
Oshikoto
Omusati
Kavango East
Kavango West
Zambezi
Oshana
Ohangwena
Legend
Total Reserve Land Supply
0 - 1247
1248 - 3631
3632 - 7473
7474 - 12192
12193 - 20552
®
1:5 000 000
0 200 400100 Km
Kavango
East
Kavango West
Zambezi
Khomas
Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Oshikoto
Ohangwena
Oshana
Kunene
Erongo
Omusati
Karas
Hardap
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 19
Table5:FinalHousingNeedsfor2017-2020Period
REGION
2017
TOTAL LAND
SUPPLY
2017-2020
PRELIMINARY
HOUSING NEEDS
2017-2020
FINAL
HOUSING
NEEDS
Omusati 7,473 6,063 -1,410
Oshana 10,318 9,810 -508
Oshikoto 6,253 8,675 2,422
Kavango West 1,247 5,063 3,816
Ohangwena 2,248 8,580 6,332
Hardap 2,296 9,407 7,111
Otjozondjupa 6,743 14,620 7,877
Kavango East 949 8,926 7,977
Kunene 0 8,437 8,437
ÁKaras 3,631 12,843 9,212
Zambezi 4,605 15,324 10,719
Omaheke 2,355 13,464 11,109
Erongo 20,552 39,951 19,399
Khomas 12,192 66,708 54,516
TOTAL 80,862 227,871 147,009
Accordingtothesecalculations,theOmusatiandOshanaRegionsappearascurrentlyoversupplied
withhousing.OntheotherhandtheKhomasRegionneedsover50,000housesduringtheshortterm-
period.
4.3.2 Medium&LongTermsPeriods:2021-2030and2031-2041
Thefuturehousingneedsthemedium-andlong-termperiodswasdeterminedasfollows:
2021-2030 Housing
Need =
2030
Housing
Projection
-
2020
Housing
Projection
2031-2041 Housing
Need =
2041
Housing
Projection
-
2030
Housing
Projection
TheresultsofthecalculationaspertheaboveformulasareshownbyTable6.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 20
Table6:HousingNeedsforMediumandLongTermPeriods
Households Projections Medium Term
Long
Term
Region 2020 2030 2041 2021-2030 2031-2041
Omaheke 20,822 27,570 37,543 6,747 9,973
Hardap 24,837 32,857 44,701 8,020 11,844
Zambezi 26,906 34,912 46,496 8,006 11,584
Kavango East 20,945 24,768 29,785 3,824 5,017
Kavango West 23,260 29,590 38,559 6,330 8,969
ÁKaras 28,747 40,776 59,895 12,028 19,119
Ohangwena 52,993 65,615 82,998 12,622 17,383
Oshana 47,032 60,879 80,864 13,847 19,985
Omusati 56,921 70,925 90,340 14,004 19,415
Kunene 28,226 45,147 75,686 16,922 30,539
Otjozondjupa 43,687 59,282 82,938 15,595 23,656
Oshikoto 49,486 67,547 95,113 18,061 27,566
Erongo 74,815 134,546 256,592 59,731 122,045
Khomas 141,964 237,207 417,227 95,243 180,020
Total/Namibia 640,640 931,622 1,438,736 290,981 507,115
4.3.3 OverallHousingNeedsinNamibiaRegionallyandNationally
Theoverallnumberofrequiredhousesnationally,duringtheshort,mediumandlongtermsareshown
byFigure11below.
Figure11:NationalHousingNeedinNamibiaintheShort,MediumandLongTermPeriods
ItisevidentfromFigure11thatthenumberofrequiredhousesinNamibiawillcontinuetoescalate
from147,009intheshorttermto507,115inthelongterm.Thecurrentoverallhousingsupplyin
Namibia(ashithertostatedinTable4)is80,862dwellings,whichisjust55%oftherequired147,009
147,009
290,981
507,115
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2017-2020
(Short Term)
2021-2030
(Medium Term)
2031-2041
(Long Term)
To
ta
l N
o.
o
f H
ou
se
ho
ld
s
N
ee
de
d
Pe
r T
er
m
Period
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 21
householdsby2020.Thiscompelslocal,regionalandnationalgovernmentstobeproactiveinthe
provisionofsuitablehousingtoaddressthecurrentandanticipatedhousingneeds.Apartfromthe
overallnationalneeds,itiscrucialtoexaminethedistributionofthehousingneedsonregionalbase.
Figure12belowillustratestheregion-by-regionhousingneedsinNamibia.
Figure12:RegionalHousingNeedsinNamibia
AsillustratedbyFigure12above,theErongoandKhomasregionsarethetworegionswiththehighest
needsofhousingforallperiods.
4.4 AnnualFutureHousingNeedsperPeriodinNamibia
Anoteworthycomponentofthehousingneedsassessmentisthedeterminationoftheexpected
housingneedsperyearduringtheplanperiod.Hence,itisimperativetoconverttheprojectedhousing
needsintoannualhousingneeds.Thiswillenableurbanandregionalplanners,otherprofessionalsin
thebuiltenvironment,aswellaspolicyanddecisionmakerstodeterminethenumberofhousesor
dwellingunitsorresidentiallandparcelsthatwillberequiredeveryyearduringtheshort-,medium-
andlong-termperiods.Inviewofthis,theprojectedhousingneedinNamibiawasconvertedtoannual
flowperregionasshownbyFigure13.
Kavango
East
Kavango
West Omusati Kunene Zambezi
Oshikot
o
Omahek
e
Ohangw
ena Hardap Oshana
//Khara
s
Otjozon
djupa Erongo Khomas
2017-2020 8926 5063 6063 8437 15324 8675 13464 8580 9407 9810 12843 14620 39951 66708
2021-2030 3824 6330 14004 16922 8006 18061 6747 12622 8020 13847 12028 15595 59731 95243
2031-2041 5017 8969 19415 30539 11584 27566 9973 17383 11844 19985 19119 23656 122045 180020
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
N
o.
o
f H
ou
se
ho
ld
s N
ee
de
d
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 22
Figure13:RegionalHousingNeedsperAnnumperPeriod
Thespatialdistributionsofthehousingneedsperannumforalltheregionsduringtheshort-,
medium-andlong-termperiodsaredepictedbyFigures14,15and16,respectively.
Kavang
o East
Kavang
o West Omusati Kunene Zambezi
Oshikot
o
Omahek
e
Ohangw
ena Hardap Oshana
//Khara
s
Otjozon
djupa Erongo Khomas
2017-2020 1994 954 -353 2109 2680 605 2777 1583 1778 -127 2303 1969 4850 13629
2021-2030 382 633 1400 1692 801 1806 675 1262 802 1385 1203 1560 5973 9524
2031-2041 456 815 1765 2776 1053 2506 907 1580 1077 1817 1738 2151 11095 16365
-1000
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 23
Figure14:Short-TermRegionalHousingNeedsperAnnum
Figure15:Medium-TermRegionalHousingNeedsperAnnum
NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED PER PERIOD
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
Oshikoto
Omusati Kavango West
Zambezi
Ohangwena
Kavango EastOshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
Oshikoto
Omusati
Kavango East
Kavango West
Zambezi
Ohangwena
Oshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
Oshikoto
Omusati Kavango West
Zambezi
Ohangwena
Kavango EastOshana
2017 - 2020 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend
2017_2020
-353 - -127
-126 - 954
955 - 2777
2778 - 4850
4851 - 13629
2021 - 2030 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
2031 - 2041 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend
2021_2030
0 - 382
383 - 802
803 - 1400
1401 - 1806
1807 - 9524
Legend
2031_2041
0 - 456
457 - 1077
1078 - 2151
2152 - 2776
2777 - 16365
®
0 200 400100 Km
1:9 000 000
NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED PER PERIOD
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
Oshikoto
Omusati Kavango West
Zambezi
Ohangwena
Kavango EastOshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
Oshikoto
Omusati
Kavango East
Kavango West
Zambezi
Ohangwena
Oshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
Oshikoto
Omusati Kavango West
Zambezi
Ohangwena
Kavango EastOshana
2017 - 2020 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend
2017_2020
-353 - -127
-126 - 954
955 - 2777
2778 - 4850
4851 - 13629
2021 - 2030 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
2031 - 2041 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend
2021_2030
0 - 382
383 - 802
803 - 1400
1401 - 1806
1807 - 9524
Legend
2031_2041
0 - 456
457 - 1077
1078 - 2151
2152 - 2776
2777 - 16365
®
0 200 400100 Km
1:9 000 000
Kavango East
Zambezi
Khomas
Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Oshikoto
Ohangwena
Oshana
Kunene
Erongo
Omusati
Karas
Hardap
Kavango West
Kavango East
Kavango West
Zambezi
Khomas
Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Oshikoto
Ohangwena
Oshana
Kunene
Erongo
Omusati
Karas
Hardap
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 24
Figure16:Long-TermRegionalHousingNeedsperAnnum
ThespatialdistributionsofthehousingneedsperannumillustratethattheKhomasandErongo
Regionsarethetwotopregionswiththehighesthousingneedsduringshort-,mediumandlong-terms.
Ontheotherhand,theOmusatiandOshanaregionshavethelowestneedsduringtheshort-term,
whiletheKavangoEastRegionistheregionwithlowestnumberofhousingneedsperannumduring
themediumandlong-termperiods.
Nonetheless,thehousingneedsareanticipatedtoincreasenationallyfortheshort-termperiod(2017-
2020),dropdownduringthemediumperiod(2021-2030)andescalateagainduringthelong-term
period(2031-2041).Inparticular,36,752households,29,098householdsand46,101householdswill
berequiredeveryyearduringtheshort-,medium-andlong-termrespectively,asshownbyFigure17
below.
NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED PER PERIOD
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
Oshikoto
Omusati Kavango West
Zambezi
Ohangwena
Kavango EastOshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
Oshikoto
Omusati
Kavango East
Kavango West
Zambezi
Ohangwena
Oshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
Oshikoto
Omusati Kavango West
Zambezi
Ohangwena
Kavango EastOshana
2017 - 2020 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend
2017_2020
-353 - -127
-126 - 954
955 - 2777
2778 - 4850
4851 - 13629
2021 - 2030 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
2031 - 2041 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend
2021_2030
0 - 382
383 - 802
803 - 1400
1401 - 1806
1807 - 9524
Legend
2031_2041
0 - 456
457 - 1077
1078 - 2151
2152 - 2776
2777 - 16365
®
0 200 400100 Km
1:9 000 000
Kavango East
Zambezi
Khomas
Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Oshikoto
Ohangwena
Oshana
Kunene
Erongo
Omusati
Karas
Hardap
Kavango West
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 25
Figure17NationalHousingNeedsperAnnumperPeriod
TheHarambeeProsperityPlanaimstodevelop26,000residentialparcelsnationallyby2020(Officeof
thePresident,2016).TheHarambeetargetof26,000willnotsufficientlymeettheprovisionofannual
housingneedsof36,752householdsbetween2017and2020asdepictedbyFigure17above.
5. Conclusion
Provisionofsuitablehousing(includingresidentialland)isadevelopmentaldrawbackinNamibia,
especiallyinurbanareaswherethereisasubstantialhousingbacklog.Thehousingscarcitycallsforan
analysisoftheextentofcurrentandfuturehousingneedsinNamibia.Suchanalysisrequiresthe
applicationofmethodologicalassessmentapproaches.However,Namibianlocal,regionalandnational
governmentshavenotestablishedsuchmethodologicalapproaches.
Hence,thisreportassessestheurbanhousingneedsinNamibiaonregionalandnationallevelsby
employingtheUnitedKingdomsDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernmentsStrategic
HousingMarketAssessment(SHMA).TheSHMAfollowsthesequentialmethodologicalapproachby
determiningthecurrenthousingneeds;currentandfuturehousingsupply;futurehousingneedsover
aplanperiod(beingfrom2017to2041);andannualhousingneedsperperiod.Thisapproachwas
confrontedbydatalimitationsinthisstudy.Inparticular,somelocalauthoritiesdidnotsupplydataon
currentandfuturehousing(includingresidentialland).Furthermore,therearenosecondarysources
demonstratingprojectednumberofhouseholdsinNamibia.However,thegeometricprojection
formulawasappliedtoprojectthenumberofhouseholds.Nevertheless,theresultsobtainedprovedto
beworthwhileindemonstratingtheextentofcurrentandfuturehousingneedsinNamibia.
36,752
29,098
46,101
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2017-2020
(Short Term)
2021-2030
(Medium Term)
2031-2041
(Long Term)
N
o.
o
f
Ho
us
in
g
N
ee
de
d
Pe
r Y
ea
r p
er
P
er
io
d
Period
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 26
Thestudysoutcomesconfirmthattheoverallcurrentandfuturehousingsupply(includingresidential
land)asavailablein,andplannedby,localauthoritiesinNamibiais80,862.Howeverthe80,862
housingsupplyonanationallevelisstilllessthantheanticipated147,009householdsthatneedtobe
providedwithsuitablehousingbytheendof2020.Therefore,inordertoensuresuitablehousingis
providedtomeetthecurrentdemandandprojectedhouseholdsgrowth,thefollowingnumberof
housesarerequiredtobeprovidedinNamibiaannuallyduringtheshort,mediumandlongterm
periods:36,752householdsbetween2017and2020;29,098householdsbetween2021and2031and
46,101householdsbetween2031and2041.
Inculmination,theSHMAapproachatteststobeavaluablemethodologicalapproachthatcanbe
appliedinassessinghousingneedsinNamibia,subjecttotheavailabilityofvarioushouseholds
variablesthatcanbefactoredintothemethodology.
6. Recommendations
Thisstudybringsforwardthefollowingrecommendations:
I. TheNamibiaStatisticsAgency(NSA)shouldavaildataonprojectednumberof
households,andprojectedtypesofhouseholds,inordertoenableaccurateassessmentsof
housingneedsinNamibia.
II. ThelocalauthoritiesinNamibianeedtodesigndatabaseswithrecordsof:
(a) availablesingleresidentiallandparcelsthatcanaccommodateoneindividualmain
household;
(b) availablehighdensityresidentiallandparcelsthatcanaccommodatemorethanone
household,andthemaximumnumberofhouseholdsthatcanbeaccommodatedonsuchland
parcels;
(c) projectednumberofsingleresidentialandhighdensityresidentiallandparcels(and
envisagednumberofhouseholds)basedontheirStructurePlan.
III. AsthereisnoformulaofconductinghousingneedsassessmentinNamibia,further
researchisneededtoestablishguidingcriteriaforhousingneedsassessmentinNamibia.In
particular,theUnitedKingdomsDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernmentsStrategic
HousingMarketAssessment(SHMA)needstobeexploredfurthertocomprehendifthereare
variablesthatneedtobesupplementedorobliteratedtotailormaketheapproachtoNamibias
housingneedsstandards.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 27
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